Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Da Kings

I'm a hockey player, and grew up in California during the Gretzky era. This means that I'm a Kings fan, and abhor the mere mention of the Mighty Ducks. Yes, they are still the Mighty Ducks, even if they have tried to distance themselves from their Disney roots by changing their name to the Anaheim Ducks. That they've won a Stanley Cup while neither the Sharks nor the Kings have climbed the mountain is something that causes me to occasionally wake up in cold sweats, a feeling not uncommon for fans of teams to never have won the Cup in their lifetimes. This is not a short list of teams.

For a lot of years, the Kings were not really worth following. They had serious problems, starting in the 90's when they were being "managed" by the McMaster of Disaster. They haven't been worth consideration for over a decade, notwithstanding the occasional playoff upset of a powerhouse like Detroit.

But they made the playoffs this season, and I'm actually excited about the King's prospects next season. A little while ago, they opened their eyes as an organization to one of the great truisms of sports. A team might be bad for a game or ten based on the players not coming through the way they're supposed to. A team might be bad for a month or ten if the coaching staff is not coming through the way they're supposed to. But if a team is bad for a year or ten, it's because the management and ownership are not coming through the way they're supposed to. I'll spare you examples of this, but trust me when I say there are MANY, and offer only the current halcyon exemplars: the Oakland Raiders, the Los Angeles Clippers, and the Baltimore Orioles.

The Kings seem to have realized that while they might not quite fall into that group, they weren't far above it, and under new ownership, did something about it. They went out and hired a guy to run the team who actually knew what he was going: Dean Lombardi, who was just coming off building the San Jose Sharks into perennial contenders. Not surprisingly, things started to turn around, and on much the same script, as Dean started building a new team, from the net forward, by drafting well, building a young core, and cherry-picking free agents based on character and need rather than on flash and flare.

For the first time in living memory, the Kings don't have a goaltending dilemma. The current starter, John Quick, was on the Team USA roster for the Olympics, and while not as good as the American starter (Ryan Miller), he deserved to be there. Excepting the number in the "wins" column, Quick's numbers were not overwhelming, but he was playing behind a young team under a new coach. More importantly, if you watched Kings games, you noticed Quick's habit of making big saves at the right time. Stopping breakaways or other great shots that would have been game-winners, kind of thing. Numbers aside, he made big saves when his team needed a big save, and that says a lot.

This is actually a bit of a problem, since Quick was not supposed to be this good. He was just supposed to be a temporary fix while the King's goalie of the future, John Bernier (the first draft pick made after Lombardi took the helm), got a little seasoning in the minors. Bernier saw only limited NHL action this season, but his numbers were spectacular (3-0-0, 1.30 goals against average, .957 save percentage). Moreover, he's been on a career track as a star, whereas - again - Quick kind of came out of nowhere. The end result is that the Kings could have a serious dilemma in goal, not in their usual fashion of trying to find a guy good enough to get wins, but in trying to decide which guy is the best guy to get wins. They also have a guy named Erik Ersberg who didn't play much, but who came through big when they needed him, and statistically was about as good as Quick.

Here's the kicker, which will be an ongoing theme on the Kings: they're all young. Quick is 24. Bernier is 21. Ersberg would be traded if there were not a glut on free-agent goaltenders this season, but will likely be the odd-man out, since he's 28. For those who are not devotees of the game, NHL goaltenders don't usually reach their peak until they're 29 or 30. This bodes well.

Defense is not going to be a problem for the Kings either, per prior postings. Drew Doughty was a finalist for the Norris Trophy last season, awarded to the NHL's best defenseman. He's 20. Jack Johnson is a stud as well. He's 23. Doughty averaged over 24 minutes a game last season, and Johnson's average was over 22, Barring injury, both should keep the same form, and increase their minutes to 27 per game. That's about 55 man-minutes from two studs in their early 20s. There's only 120 man-minutes on defense in a game. There are no huge stars on the roster after those two, but Rob Scuderi is as solid as they get (20 minutes a game), and Sean O'Donnell can still get the job done (18 minutes). The Kings will still need to play some depth guys, but they won't need to play them much.

On right wing, they'll do fine. Team Captain Dustin Brown (age 25, 24 goals, 32 assists) is the sort of guy that the lack of has kept the Sharks from winning a cup; he led the league in hits last season, and makes a difference even when he's not scoring. Wayne Simmonds (age 20) came out of nowhere with 40 points last season and earned himself a spot on the second line. Justin Williams should be healthy again, and - when healthy - is a 30-goal scorer.

Left wing is a concern. Ryan Smyth is a bit long in the tooth (at 34), especially for the physical style of play he plays, but it was recently announced that he will remain captain of Team CANADA, so one would presume he's still got a little left. Like Brown, he's the sort of skate-through-a-wall kind of guy that makes the difference in crunch time. The supremely talented but extremely flaky Alex Frolov is leaving in free agency, but that might end up being addition by subtraction. The cupboard is pretty bare after that, which is why the Kings are in the lead to sign free agent Ilya Kovalchuk, who has been among the lead leaders in scoring for the last few years. We'll have to see how that goes.

At center, Anze Kopitar (age 22) led the Kings in scoring (34 goals, 47 assists). There was a time that he led the LEAGUE in scoring as well. He's only going to get better. Jarrett Stoll (age 28) is capable but not spectacular, as is Michal Handzus (age 34). They will chip a few in, play solid defense, and that's about it. At this point, the difference between the Kings and the teams that dominate the league is one more top-level center. Unfortunately, they don't grow on tree. Except in Pittsburgh, apparently.

All in all, expect the Kings to return to the playoffs next season. And the season after than. And the one after that.

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