Week Two Results, Thoughts, Week Three Picks

This is more football, and is really not about anything except football, so spare yourself the grief if you're among my readers who don't give a damn. For those who give even a little bit of a damn, HT was 10-5 against the spread for the weekend (with a push in OAK vs. KC), and is 22-9 against the spread for the season. As before, professional betters call it a victory when they go 60%, so I'm sure my numbers will even out as the season goes on, and as the bookmakers learn more about the teams, and about who the betters are backing this season. I have no illusions about outsmarting Vegas in the long run, but it will be fun to see how it goes. This is gonna be a good season. Some interesting developments going on in the league, including the changing of the old guard, apparently. Here are my thoughts on some of the teams.

ARI has played amazing run defense, against running teams (SF, JAX). This team will rise or fall based on the offensive line’s protection of Warner. IND will be a test, with Freeney and Mathis on the pass-rush.

ATL looks strong, but hasn't played any of the big boys. Getting good work from Ryan and Gonzales, and Turner will get his every week. Pass defense okay, but run defense is a problem. They should win the games they should win, but still need to play their way into elite status.

BAL is strong running the ball (5 yards avg for Rice), is getting solid play from Flacco, and had a big win in SD after a walkover against KC. Great run defense, as always. They’ve shown they can win a footrace in SD; 2nd best scoring O in league (to NO). This team will be dangerous, and looks to have all the pieces.

BUF is gonna have protection problems with their offensive line injuries. Good run defense, but yielding 300 yards a game passing. Good running, and Edwards is getting job done; they’re putting up points. Playing footrace games, and not much clock control with no-huddle offense.

CAR is placing a lot of blame at Delhomme's feet, and he has given the ball away a lot. But the defense has not been able to cover for mistakes, and is yielding over 160 yards a game on the ground. When you give up over 30 points/game, there are problems other than QB play.

CHI is playing great run defense against running teams, but having problems defending the pass (against GB, PIT). Cutler hit or miss, but got PIT sans Polamalu. Lots of good stuff, but nothing spectacular. Expect close games, with wins depending on Cutler.

CIN was victim of a fluke vs. DEN, and strong in a win in GB; weak running, but okay passing that game. Pass defense a problem, middle of pack in scoring and scoring defense, but haven’t faced any jugernaughts. Penalty problems. Wins seem to depend on offensive chemistry, which might be coming together.

CLE not doing much on either side of ball in 2 double-digit losses (MIN, DEN).

DAL looks hugely overrated at this point, and any turnaround starts with Tony Romo. He's playing like a guy who spends too much time banging super-models, and not enough time studying film. Running is good, and they're scoring, but the Defense is not as good as the last few seasons, and hasn't been able to cover for Romo's mistakes.

DEN looked hopeless one week, strong the next. Orton not a problem. Best defense in league (after playing CIN, CLE). Strong against CLE, but needed a fluke to win in CIN. Clearly looking for new identity, and not a contender until they find one.

DET started the season against two legitimate Superbowl contenders. But biggest problem looks like turnovers (3 per game against NO and MIN). We’ll know more about them after facing a middling WAS team in Wk 3.

GB is having big problems in close games. Not generating a lot of yards, or yards per play, even against CIN. Okay run and pass defense, but pretty boring football, and they're allowing weaker teams to linger. So far, they're kidding themselves about contending with MIN in that division.

HOU is very weak on 3rd down on both sides of the ball. Worst run defense in league, edging CLE. They’ve played against strong defenses, but run game going nowhere. Scoring offense so far depends on Andre Johnson; impotent against NYJ, dazzling against TEN, and possible suspended in Wk 3 following a brawl on the sidelines in Wk 2. That would be bad for HOU.

IND is on the decline, with brainpower (coaching) losses, and with injuries on both sides of the ball (Sanders, Gonzales). Their 1st down pass to rush ratio was 4:1 in week one. JAX has a good rush defense, but with Manning slinging, Addai needs more than a 2.5 average rush. It is early, but don’t know if they’re going to be blowing anyone out, especially when MIA (despite losing) controlled the ball for over 45 mins of game time. Waiting to see them play a team with good pass defense.

JAX is getting almost 5 yards a carry from Jones-Drew, even with a game against ARI (who's run defense has been excellent). They’ve played solid offensive teams (IND, ARI), and their passing game/scoring defense have not been up to the task. Lit up by ARI passing game.

KC hung 24 on BAL in a loss, but scoring was in garbage time, and only got them within 14. Don’t expect a lot. Cassell & running both okay. Run defense good against weak teams, but not ready for big time. The talent is just simply not there.

NE is in decline (after a big loss to NYJ), pending a resurgence by Tom Brady. He has not been himself for 2 weeks, and generally speaking, that kind of injury takes a full season to recover from. Just ask Carson Palmer. In any rate, between this injury and decline of the defense, NE doesn’t look like a contender unless Brady demonstrates that he’s ahead of the usual recovery curve.

NO looks like a fantasy team. Brees on pace for 72 TD passes, including 2 against mighty PHI. Run defense looks a bit questionable (despite 2.9 avg), but they're hard to throw against, and teams will need to throw to keep up. (Think IND from their Superbowl year.)

NYJ is very much on the rise, rookie QB notwithstanding. Their defense has not given up a TD in 2 games (HOU, NE), and their running game is getting it done. The AFC East is not what it used to be, and this team looks primed to take the crown.

OAK was in it with SD, but struggled to beat KC; they look strong at times, but young and mistake prone. Yards per pass weak, against not-great pass defenses. Yardage defense average, but scoring defense in top-10. They seem to play to level of their opponents, with mixed results.

PHI has a good defense; last week was more NO greatness than PHI weakness. But until McNabb is back, the offense will not be the same, and Vick is not the solution. Honestly speaking, Jeff Garcia should be playing, not Kolb. They are still strong, and with McNabb, are legitimate contenders.

PIT’s running game averaging only 3.1/carry, and their defense (while FIERCE) is not the same without Polamalu. As always, they will not be blown out, and will tend to win close games, but they’re one more big injury from the middle of the pack.

SD is getting beat, despite spectacular performance from skill positions, notably Rivers. Given that this is several seasons in a row they’ve had slow starts, I think the problem is lack of conditioning at the strength positions. Norv Turner is not a guy who makes sure his linemen put in the weight-room time. Theorectically, they could play their way into game shape, but have lost NT Williams, and C Hardwick is out as well. The talent is still there, but they are no longer giants.

SEA is dealing with Hasselbeck hurt again. SF ran all over them, and even StL managed over 4 yards/carry. Pass defense untested thus far (StL, SF). Gonna be a long season.

SF is on the rise, and beat the fuck out of SEA (injuries to QB Hasselbeck, LT Locklear, MLB Tatupu, CB Wilson). Getting good play on both lines, and finally getting some pressure on QBs (without sacrificing run defense). They're not going to blow anyone out with their QB situation, but they look like a team nobody wants to play against.

STL is getting nothing from their passing game, Bulger or no. Lack of production elsewhere means this could be a long season, but can look forward to games against SEA.

TB is having problems with run defense (over 6 ypp against BUF), and is giving up over 5 ypp on both run and pass. Lost footraces to DAL and BUF, by over 12 points per game. Defense clearly not holding up their end; far less talent than glory days. The offense has not grown to make up the difference.

TEN is playing amazing run defense (1.9/attempt, less than 50/game). But they got shredded by lowly HOU’s pass game, largely from inability to stay on Andre Johnson. Looked like a lazy secondary; maybe a 1-week aberration. TEN’s Johnson doing great on the ground. Their defensive secondary problems might make a lot of games into footraces, which even their running game might not be able to keep up with.

WAS is getting okay (unspectacular) numbers on offense, and is not bad defensively. They’re just not finding the end zone. They will be tough to play against, and will squeak out wins, but will be whipped by top teams (NO, BAL, NYJ, etc.).

All that having been said, here are my picks for Wk 3:

NYJ (-2.5) vs. TEN
NYJ will not be able to run against TEN; nobody else has. But NYJ has not given up a touchdown TO ANYONE this season. Even placing things on Sanchez’s shoulders… I think he’s up to it.

JAX (+4) at HOU
Close call. HOU is coming on, and Andre Johnson will probably get loose against a not-great JAX pass defense. On the other hand, JAX is going to do dirty things to HOU’s league-worst run defense. Question is: is controlling the clock in the run game going to keep them within a field goal? I think it will.

PHI (-9.5) vs. KC
PHI is not going to be the same on offense until McNabb comes back, and Vick being available is a lot more likely to cause strife than it is to boost production. Still, even if all the QB does is hand the ball to Westbrook, they should cover at home against KC.

BAL (-13.5) vs. CLE
This is a big line. But BAL is really not shy about whipping on much weaker teams, which is exactly what CLE is.

NYG (-7) at TB
The Giants are really not getting the sort of controlling defense they should, but have not had any walkover opponents thus far. TB has not been as bad as their record, but they got whipped by DAL, who got beat by NYG last Sunday night.

DET (+6.5) vs. WAS
WAS managed only nine points in STL in Wk 2, and has only scored 2 touchdowns total in two games (with one coming in garbage time against NYG). How can they win by a TD when they can't really score a TD? DET is not good, but has played contenders (NO, MIN). I don't see WAS covering, and I think DET can win this outright, if they get the turnovers under control.

GB (-6.5) at StL
Rams are doing nothing on offense, even when the defense holds up its end. GB is really not built to blow teams out, but definitely seems a touchdown better, on average.

MIN (-7) vs. SF
SF has a great defense, and absolutely shut down Adrian Petersen last time they played (seriously; they were amazing, check it out). But MIN still won the game. By a lot. And that was with Tavaris Jackson as QB.

ATL (+4) at NE
ATL is on the rise, while NE is not doing so well. ATL is not as good as NYJ, but is still better than NE, even in NE (at least in September). NE loses or fails to cover.

CHI (-1.5) at SEA
SEA couldn’t stay this close to SF and a good running game. Hasselbeck healthy or not, they won’t stay this close to CHI and a good running game AND a good passing game. If Cutler does his job, this game is not close.

NO (-5.5) at BUF
Until further notice, I take NO to cover any possible spread, and this line makes me wonder if the oddsmakers know something I don’t. Way I see it, BUF (no huddle, soft pass defense) is not even gonna be much of a speed-bump in the face of NO’s current mojo. How are they supposed to stay within 6 against a NO team that lit up the PHI defense for 48 points?

MIA (+6.5) at SD
SD is weak. Talented, but weak, and managed to lose to BAL even with a 400-yard performance from Rivers. Add in SD injury problems, and I think MIA covers, or wins outright.

PIT (-4.5) at CIN
These Rust-Belt battles can be fun to watch. But I don’t think this one will be. PIT has been a bit soft in pass defense, but I think their zone-blitz will get to Palmer, who is solid, but past his prime. He misses TJ a lot more than he’ll admit.

DEN (+2) at OAK
How exactly was this line reached? OAK does bring it against DEN, but still. At least DEN can out-defense weak teams. Unless Jackson cuts the bone-head throws at least in half, DEN wins.

ARI (pk) vs. IND
See IND notes, above. ARI is middling pass defense, but second in league in sacks. Might be enough, especially at home.

CAR (+9.5) at DAL
CAR was very weak in Week 1, but was within 8 of ATL last week, and was threatening until a Delhomme INT in the end-zone iced the game. They don't have the history or fan-base, but I think ATL is better than DAL right now. This is a big line, and I think it’s driven by the Cowboys’ fans more than by the Cowboys’ abilities.