Week Four Picks

In last weekend's action, HT was 10-6 against the spread, bringing the record to 32-15 against the spread for the season. As expected, the bookies will continue to get better at setting the lines, as we learn more about the teams; I expect things to even out further. To address this, I'm considering incorporating the theory from the past about betting underdogs, based on rabid fans driving lines. Not sure how far I'll go with it, as I've been doing pretty well so far basing picks exclusively on the various teams' talent and performance. Not sure if I'll be able to keep up that level of analysis as the season goes on, but we'll see.

In any rate, here are my week four picks:

HOU (-9) vs. OAK
This line is big enough to be daunting, but still. Neither teams plays very good defense, but at least HOU can score, even against decent defenses. OAK hasn't been able to score on anyone. I think Andre Johnson is going to get loose, and a two-score win at home is within HOU's reach.

TEN (-3) at JAX
JAX depends on their running game, and are going to get nowhere against TEN. JAX should do okay against a very strong TEN running game, but TEN has big-play ability that JAX lacks.

BAL (+2.5) at NE
NE is getting good things from Brady again (at least last week), but BAL looks good, and lacks for nothing except WR depth. They hopefully have taken advantage of tune-up games against weak opponents. I don't think NE is going to be able to repeat the ball-control offensive game they managed last week; unless Brady is the Brady of old, BAL wins or covers.

CIN (+5.5) at CLE
CIN is coming together, and has found a defensive game. They needed a big 4th qtr to beat PIT, but if they can beat PIT at all, they really should be able to beat CLE by a touchdown.

NYG (-8.5) at KC
KC is better than the TB team the Giants just brutalized, but barring an amazing defensive effort (unlikely with KC's inability to run and thereby control the clock), I gotta believe the Giants will win by 2 scores.

DET (+10) at CHI
Big line. CHI is winning, but Cutler is only really appearing when pressure is on. He's getting it done with talent, not effort, and will not feel that pressure going into this game. CHI is letting teams linger; even SEA (without Hasselbeck) managed to stay within a TD. CHI is definitely the better team, but I don't think they're 10 points better, even at home.

WAS (-7) vs. TB
WAS is still having scoring problems, but TB is not scoring AT ALL, and could be the worst team in the league (including OAK). WAS has something to prove following a loss to DET (where they actually got some offense going). They are a touchdown better, especially at home.

IND (?) vs. SEA
Still no line on this game, but if it's less than 13, I take the Colts. Would love to see it 9 or less. SEA is hurting, and IND leads the league in total offense. Their pass/run ratio is almost 4:1, but SEA won't be able to do anything about that; Manning is too good, and IND has too much depth at receiver. IND will win by 2 scores.

NO (-6.5) vs. NYJ
Until further notice, I take NO to cover any possible spread. NYJ looks very, very good. But NO looks amazing, and not just on offense. Until proven otherwise, NO is at least a touchdown better than ANYONE, especially at home.

BUF (-2.5) at MIA
MIA is staying in games with strong running and clock control, but is not scoring points. BUF is soft against the pass but has a pretty good run defense, and held NO in check for 3 quarters. Especially with Pennington out, don't think MIA will be able to get it done, even at home.

SF (-10) at. STL
SF has won or covered every week this season. MIN needed a miracle finish to win, despite getting a special teams TD. Hill looked great. STL lost by 28 to SEA, and by 19 to GB. This is a big line, and Frank Gore is hurt, but SF is better than SEA or GB, and can win by 2 scores.

DAL (-3) vs. DEN
DEN has the best defense in the league statistically, and is at or near the top of the league in both sacks and INTs. But they haven't played anybody. After Monday's game, Romo looks like he's doing the film study and (much more importantly), the DAL defense has found some legs. Think they'll win by more than a field-goal.

SD (+6.5) at PIT
PIT will be playing mad. But they haven't been able to run, and Big Ben is throwing more INTs than TDs. They're not winning by much even when they win. SD will continue to have problems running, but - barring weather - will be able to throw against the PIT defense. All in all, I think SD wins or covers, even on the road, pending a decision from the football gods on weather next sunday.

MIN (-3.5) vs. GB
Raise your hand if you think Brett Farve will be less than amazing on a Monday night, at home, against his former team. Yeah. Me neither.