Week One

Am not going to be betting this year, since this NFL season shows overwhelming signs of being a crazy, loopy, fucked-up season from hell. But just for kicks, here are my picks.

PIT (-6.5) over TEN
TEN is gonna be good, but PIT is always good, and is playing a season opener at home on a Thursday night. Think they'll bring more than TEN can handle.

ATL (-4) over MIA
Still waiting to see anything notable from MIA other than gimmick offense. ATL's offense is more than gimmick, and now has a Tony Gonzales.

BAL (-13) over KC
This is a HUGE spread (I use the numbers from the Hilton sportsbook), but KC doesn't have much of anything (even their new QB might not play), and BAL has no real shortage except WR depth.

PHI (-2.5) at CAR
PHI is gonna be strong, so long as Westbrook is healthy, and Vick is not a distraction. Westbrook is healthy, and Vick is inelligible this week.

CIN (-4.5) over DEN
The only NFL team that's been a bigger train-wreck than CIN over the last 4 seasons has been DEN over this last offseason (Oakland no longer counts as an NFL team). DEN will be able to run the ball. But CIN will be able to throw the ball. That'll be the difference.

MIN (-4) at CLE
MIN was good, and got better in the off-season. CLE was not so good, and didn't do much over the off-season.

NYJ (+4.5) at HOU
Everyone is high on the Texans. But they've actually accomplished fuck-all. NYJ is starting a rookie QB, but can run and play defense. Unless Andre Johnson breaks out, NYJ wins or covers.

JAX (+7) at IND
Wonder about IND's defense, and how they'll do sans Tony Dungy. Manning should win it for them, but I think JAX will cover.

NO (-13) over DET
HUGE line. But NO looks like a fantasy team, and their D has gotten better. DET started heading in the right direction as soon as Millen was canned, but they've turned over their roster, their best QB is a rookie, and they don't have much identity as a team.

DAL (-6) at TB
TB fired their offensive co-ordinator about a week ago. Don't think they're going to manage much. DAL will respond to Romo & Phillips being called out by Emmett Smith.

SF (+6.5) at ARI
SF has QB issues, but is on the rise, and has nasty defense. ARI lost the superbowl last time they played, and is treading water at best. Don't think they'll cover.

WAS (+6.5) at NYG
The Giants are tough where it matters (along both lines), and will be able to run. But who is Eli going to throw the ball to?

SEA (-8.5) over StL
Bulger is healthy, but how long will he stay that way playing behind that offensive line? The line is high enough to scare me a little, but SEA is clearly the better team right now, and playing a season opener at home, with a QB and an RB who both have something to prove.

GB (-3) over CHI
As with NYG, CHI has a lot of parts that work, but until a big-play receiver emerges, it's just dink-and-dunk, no matter how strong Cutler's arm is.

NE (-11) over BUF
BUF has not been great, and while adding TO makes them more talented, it doesn't necessarily make them better. The Pats are still the Pats, they're opening the season at home on a Monday night, and Tom Brady is healthy.

SD (-9.5) over OAK
LT has made a career of torching the Raiders, and is healthy. Gates and Rivers are healthy too. And this year, OAK would have problems facing SD's Torrey Pines High School, much less SD's Chargers. By cutting Jeff Garcia, Al Davis has made it 'Jamarcus Russel breakout season or bust.' Not many of Al's gambles have paid off lately.