Divisional/Delusional Playoffs

I continue to be amazed at the human mind's ability to delude itself with wishful thinking, notwithstanding overwhelming factual evidence to the contrary.

This week's example is - once again - a NE Patriots reference. Notable professional commentators are arguing in the public forum that, not only CAN Jacksonville win, but that Jacksonville WILL win. ( http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs07/columns/story?columnist=green_jeremy&id=3187786 ) I admit that the former is possible. But to make the latter assertion is fucking crazy: nothing short of divine intervention by the football gods or else catestrophic meltdown by NE will result in a JAX win this week. Lets do some debunking, just for kicks.

First of all, the points that NE is overhyped:

People point out that NE might not be as good as its 16-0 record. "They played in the AFC east, and had an easy schedule." Bullshit. First of all, in addition to playing in the AFC East (which is soft), NE got wins at DAL, at IND, at NYG, and also wins against SD, PIT, and WAS. NE's perfect season included wins against SIX PLAYOFF TEAMS! Besides which, anyone who remembers the beatings that NE was handing out (notably in DAL and against PIT) should know better than to suggest that this team is somehow not as good as the numbers indicate.

People point out that the NE run defense is suspect, and not as good as the numbers indicate. Although 4th statistically, this number is inflated, since NE spent a lot of time with leads, and other teams were forced to throw. Response: So? I agree that if NE has a weakness, it's run defense, but don't see how this means anything is going to be different this weekend. The Patriots are going to score points, and JAX is going to have to score some as well. There's no doubt at all about the NE offense, and JAX is going to have to keep up, which means they're going to have the same problem everyone else does, which means they're going to have to throw the ball. The NE run defense will do exactly what it has all season: hold other teams down just enough for the NE offense to get a lead. At which point JAX will have to start throwing, same as everyone else has.

People point out that this NE team, with its pass-happy offense, is not built for January cold-weather games. This will be a game in NE in January. I find it amazing that people use the fact that NE has a playoff game IN NEW ENGLAND as a point against the Patriots. Belichick is 14-2 in playoff home games. Brady is 6-0. You think the NE defense is going to be flat in front of a home crowd? Don't split hairs to find reasons why a home playoff game somehow works against NE. You're smoking crack.

Now lets look at the arguments that JAX is under-rated.

People point out that JAX has a great running game and will be able to control the clock against NE. This is true, but "contolling the clock" is always a relative issue. No matter how good JAX's possession game, the NE offense IS going to get on the field: the dynamics of the game indicate that both teams are probably going to have about the same number of possessions (both these teams are pretty good about turnovers; that should be a wash). The NE offense is going to get possessions and score points. Raise your hand if you think that JAX can score more points than NE given an equal number of possessions. That's what I thought. JAX might be able to keep in from being a blowout by limiting the number of possessions each team has, but that is the best results you can hope for from the "ball-control" theory. Turnovers aside, you cannot limit the number of the other team's possession except by limiting the number of your own possessions!

People point out that JAX has a great run defense, and will force NE to throw the ball. NE has been throwing the ball all season, whether they were "forced" to or not. The goal of forcing the QB to throw is based on the ideas that every incompletion is a lost play with no gain, and you might force a QB mistake that results in an interception. Brady is completing 69% of his passes. He's averaged 11.7 yards per completion, and 8.3 yards per attempt. Don't bet on NE drives stalling because Brady can't connect. As for mistakes, his touchdown to INT ration is over 5 to 1, and he's thrown just over one interception for every two games. Don't count on forcing him into turning the ball over. Weather might make it tough on Tom. But he's 12-2 in the playoffs for his career, and 84-1 carrer when the Pats have a lead in the forth. If you're plan to win depends on Tom Brady making mistakes that give you the game, you've got some re-thinking to do.

None of running the ball, controlling the clock, or forcing the pass did JAX much good against IND; they got beat by 22 points in IND in week 7. (Two weeks later, NE beat IND in IND.) IND beat JAX again in JAX in week 13. How exactly are things supposed to be better when JAX is facing the league's best offense (NE) instead of the fifth best offense (IND)?

Here are the simple facts of the game. New England is winning by an average margin of almost 20 points. They kicked the hell out of a PIT team that was better than JAX on defense, and almost as good running the ball. They are playing at home, and coming off a season in which they set single-season records for points, touchdowns, TD passes, and TD receptions. JAX is 0-7 this season when an opponent has a lead of 7 or greater.

There is a reason they play the games, and I might be the one who's wrong (it happens) but the way I see it, and barring divine intervetion, the Pats win this one handily.