In last weekend's action, HT was 10-6 against the spread, bringing the record to 32-15 against the spread for the season. As expected, the bookies will continue to get better at setting the lines, as we learn more about the teams; I expect things to even out further. To address this, I'm considering incorporating the theory from the past about betting underdogs, based on rabid fans driving lines. Not sure how far I'll go with it, as I've been doing pretty well so far basing picks exclusively on the various teams' talent and performance. Not sure if I'll be able to keep up that level of analysis as the season goes on, but we'll see.
In any rate, here are my week four picks:
HOU (-9) vs. OAK
This line is big enough to be daunting, but still. Neither teams plays very good defense, but at least HOU can score, even against decent defenses. OAK hasn't been able to score on anyone. I think Andre Johnson is going to get loose, and a two-score win at home is within HOU's reach.
TEN (-3) at JAX
JAX depends on their running game, and are going to get nowhere against TEN. JAX should do okay against a very strong TEN running game, but TEN has big-play ability that JAX lacks.
BAL (+2.5) at NE
NE is getting good things from Brady again (at least last week), but BAL looks good, and lacks for nothing except WR depth. They hopefully have taken advantage of tune-up games against weak opponents. I don't think NE is going to be able to repeat the ball-control offensive game they managed last week; unless Brady is the Brady of old, BAL wins or covers.
CIN (+5.5) at CLE
CIN is coming together, and has found a defensive game. They needed a big 4th qtr to beat PIT, but if they can beat PIT at all, they really should be able to beat CLE by a touchdown.
NYG (-8.5) at KC
KC is better than the TB team the Giants just brutalized, but barring an amazing defensive effort (unlikely with KC's inability to run and thereby control the clock), I gotta believe the Giants will win by 2 scores.
DET (+10) at CHI
Big line. CHI is winning, but Cutler is only really appearing when pressure is on. He's getting it done with talent, not effort, and will not feel that pressure going into this game. CHI is letting teams linger; even SEA (without Hasselbeck) managed to stay within a TD. CHI is definitely the better team, but I don't think they're 10 points better, even at home.
WAS (-7) vs. TB
WAS is still having scoring problems, but TB is not scoring AT ALL, and could be the worst team in the league (including OAK). WAS has something to prove following a loss to DET (where they actually got some offense going). They are a touchdown better, especially at home.
IND (?) vs. SEA
Still no line on this game, but if it's less than 13, I take the Colts. Would love to see it 9 or less. SEA is hurting, and IND leads the league in total offense. Their pass/run ratio is almost 4:1, but SEA won't be able to do anything about that; Manning is too good, and IND has too much depth at receiver. IND will win by 2 scores.
NO (-6.5) vs. NYJ
Until further notice, I take NO to cover any possible spread. NYJ looks very, very good. But NO looks amazing, and not just on offense. Until proven otherwise, NO is at least a touchdown better than ANYONE, especially at home.
BUF (-2.5) at MIA
MIA is staying in games with strong running and clock control, but is not scoring points. BUF is soft against the pass but has a pretty good run defense, and held NO in check for 3 quarters. Especially with Pennington out, don't think MIA will be able to get it done, even at home.
SF (-10) at. STL
SF has won or covered every week this season. MIN needed a miracle finish to win, despite getting a special teams TD. Hill looked great. STL lost by 28 to SEA, and by 19 to GB. This is a big line, and Frank Gore is hurt, but SF is better than SEA or GB, and can win by 2 scores.
DAL (-3) vs. DEN
DEN has the best defense in the league statistically, and is at or near the top of the league in both sacks and INTs. But they haven't played anybody. After Monday's game, Romo looks like he's doing the film study and (much more importantly), the DAL defense has found some legs. Think they'll win by more than a field-goal.
SD (+6.5) at PIT
PIT will be playing mad. But they haven't been able to run, and Big Ben is throwing more INTs than TDs. They're not winning by much even when they win. SD will continue to have problems running, but - barring weather - will be able to throw against the PIT defense. All in all, I think SD wins or covers, even on the road, pending a decision from the football gods on weather next sunday.
MIN (-3.5) vs. GB
Raise your hand if you think Brett Farve will be less than amazing on a Monday night, at home, against his former team. Yeah. Me neither.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Sunday, September 27, 2009
The Male Mind
I've spent that last week or so hanging around with one of my oldest friends, having a really good time and working almost not at all. It has been EXACTLY what I needed. This has been my first full week vacation since... ... ... Nevermind. In any rate, spending time with her, the conversation is always good, always honest (we've know each other a long time, and are generally past the lying-to-impress stage), and I always am presented with some interesting thoughts, angles, or spins on things that I would not have otherwise considered. Usually, this is a direct result of the fact that my friend is mutant smart, very dynamic, and female.
The female mind (or at least hers) always comes up with interesting points on topics that I otherwise would consider fairly cut and dried.
Take for example, band names. On the car ride home from a social function, a Finger Eleven song came on the radio. I'm sure you've heard it. Besides liking their music, I like Finger Eleven, because anyone who can come up with that sort of clever, thinly-veiled penis reference is someone that I tip my hat to. Creativly presented filth is always a pleasant change from the usual run-of-the-mill filth that I get shoved down my throat from sources like work, pop culture, and Las Vegas. So it's refreshing.
I any rate: In mentioning my respect for Finger Eleven to my friend (who has ongoing problems with male douchebaggery - which for once is not totally my fault - and who spent the day periodically enraged at the depths of such douchebaggery), I was presented with the idea that if men spent as much time thinking about other things as they spent thinking about their cocks, a lot of the drama and bullshit the world has to deal with would probably be solved in pretty short order. Seriously: how many different names, descriptors, or obsure referents are there for a penis? Even with the proviso that it is every man's best friend, favorite toy, and worst enemy - well worthy of a great deal of attention - doesn't it seem a bit odd? They say Eskimos have dozens of defferent words that mean subtle varioations of "snow" and/or "ice." But find me a culture anywhere that has less than fifty colloquial descriptors for cock. Take another listen to John Cleese's song about "Isn't it great to have a penis" for a quick refresher course.
Now then. If we spent as much time pondering cold fusion or particle physics as we spent coming up with clever ways to talk about naughty things, tell me wouldn't have cracked that pesky quantum gravimetrics nut.
I really don't have a point with all this, but I wanted to get it down, because I'm sure I'd file the idea away and give it no further attention otherwise, and this seems like something worthy of further consideration, and perhaps incorporation into a Rule or an Explanation.
The female mind (or at least hers) always comes up with interesting points on topics that I otherwise would consider fairly cut and dried.
Take for example, band names. On the car ride home from a social function, a Finger Eleven song came on the radio. I'm sure you've heard it. Besides liking their music, I like Finger Eleven, because anyone who can come up with that sort of clever, thinly-veiled penis reference is someone that I tip my hat to. Creativly presented filth is always a pleasant change from the usual run-of-the-mill filth that I get shoved down my throat from sources like work, pop culture, and Las Vegas. So it's refreshing.
I any rate: In mentioning my respect for Finger Eleven to my friend (who has ongoing problems with male douchebaggery - which for once is not totally my fault - and who spent the day periodically enraged at the depths of such douchebaggery), I was presented with the idea that if men spent as much time thinking about other things as they spent thinking about their cocks, a lot of the drama and bullshit the world has to deal with would probably be solved in pretty short order. Seriously: how many different names, descriptors, or obsure referents are there for a penis? Even with the proviso that it is every man's best friend, favorite toy, and worst enemy - well worthy of a great deal of attention - doesn't it seem a bit odd? They say Eskimos have dozens of defferent words that mean subtle varioations of "snow" and/or "ice." But find me a culture anywhere that has less than fifty colloquial descriptors for cock. Take another listen to John Cleese's song about "Isn't it great to have a penis" for a quick refresher course.
Now then. If we spent as much time pondering cold fusion or particle physics as we spent coming up with clever ways to talk about naughty things, tell me wouldn't have cracked that pesky quantum gravimetrics nut.
I really don't have a point with all this, but I wanted to get it down, because I'm sure I'd file the idea away and give it no further attention otherwise, and this seems like something worthy of further consideration, and perhaps incorporation into a Rule or an Explanation.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Week Two Results, Thoughts, Week Three Picks
This is more football, and is really not about anything except football, so spare yourself the grief if you're among my readers who don't give a damn. For those who give even a little bit of a damn, HT was 10-5 against the spread for the weekend (with a push in OAK vs. KC), and is 22-9 against the spread for the season. As before, professional betters call it a victory when they go 60%, so I'm sure my numbers will even out as the season goes on, and as the bookmakers learn more about the teams, and about who the betters are backing this season. I have no illusions about outsmarting Vegas in the long run, but it will be fun to see how it goes. This is gonna be a good season. Some interesting developments going on in the league, including the changing of the old guard, apparently. Here are my thoughts on some of the teams.
ARI has played amazing run defense, against running teams (SF, JAX). This team will rise or fall based on the offensive line’s protection of Warner. IND will be a test, with Freeney and Mathis on the pass-rush.
ATL looks strong, but hasn't played any of the big boys. Getting good work from Ryan and Gonzales, and Turner will get his every week. Pass defense okay, but run defense is a problem. They should win the games they should win, but still need to play their way into elite status.
BAL is strong running the ball (5 yards avg for Rice), is getting solid play from Flacco, and had a big win in SD after a walkover against KC. Great run defense, as always. They’ve shown they can win a footrace in SD; 2nd best scoring O in league (to NO). This team will be dangerous, and looks to have all the pieces.
BUF is gonna have protection problems with their offensive line injuries. Good run defense, but yielding 300 yards a game passing. Good running, and Edwards is getting job done; they’re putting up points. Playing footrace games, and not much clock control with no-huddle offense.
CAR is placing a lot of blame at Delhomme's feet, and he has given the ball away a lot. But the defense has not been able to cover for mistakes, and is yielding over 160 yards a game on the ground. When you give up over 30 points/game, there are problems other than QB play.
CHI is playing great run defense against running teams, but having problems defending the pass (against GB, PIT). Cutler hit or miss, but got PIT sans Polamalu. Lots of good stuff, but nothing spectacular. Expect close games, with wins depending on Cutler.
CIN was victim of a fluke vs. DEN, and strong in a win in GB; weak running, but okay passing that game. Pass defense a problem, middle of pack in scoring and scoring defense, but haven’t faced any jugernaughts. Penalty problems. Wins seem to depend on offensive chemistry, which might be coming together.
CLE not doing much on either side of ball in 2 double-digit losses (MIN, DEN).
DAL looks hugely overrated at this point, and any turnaround starts with Tony Romo. He's playing like a guy who spends too much time banging super-models, and not enough time studying film. Running is good, and they're scoring, but the Defense is not as good as the last few seasons, and hasn't been able to cover for Romo's mistakes.
DEN looked hopeless one week, strong the next. Orton not a problem. Best defense in league (after playing CIN, CLE). Strong against CLE, but needed a fluke to win in CIN. Clearly looking for new identity, and not a contender until they find one.
DET started the season against two legitimate Superbowl contenders. But biggest problem looks like turnovers (3 per game against NO and MIN). We’ll know more about them after facing a middling WAS team in Wk 3.
GB is having big problems in close games. Not generating a lot of yards, or yards per play, even against CIN. Okay run and pass defense, but pretty boring football, and they're allowing weaker teams to linger. So far, they're kidding themselves about contending with MIN in that division.
HOU is very weak on 3rd down on both sides of the ball. Worst run defense in league, edging CLE. They’ve played against strong defenses, but run game going nowhere. Scoring offense so far depends on Andre Johnson; impotent against NYJ, dazzling against TEN, and possible suspended in Wk 3 following a brawl on the sidelines in Wk 2. That would be bad for HOU.
IND is on the decline, with brainpower (coaching) losses, and with injuries on both sides of the ball (Sanders, Gonzales). Their 1st down pass to rush ratio was 4:1 in week one. JAX has a good rush defense, but with Manning slinging, Addai needs more than a 2.5 average rush. It is early, but don’t know if they’re going to be blowing anyone out, especially when MIA (despite losing) controlled the ball for over 45 mins of game time. Waiting to see them play a team with good pass defense.
JAX is getting almost 5 yards a carry from Jones-Drew, even with a game against ARI (who's run defense has been excellent). They’ve played solid offensive teams (IND, ARI), and their passing game/scoring defense have not been up to the task. Lit up by ARI passing game.
KC hung 24 on BAL in a loss, but scoring was in garbage time, and only got them within 14. Don’t expect a lot. Cassell & running both okay. Run defense good against weak teams, but not ready for big time. The talent is just simply not there.
NE is in decline (after a big loss to NYJ), pending a resurgence by Tom Brady. He has not been himself for 2 weeks, and generally speaking, that kind of injury takes a full season to recover from. Just ask Carson Palmer. In any rate, between this injury and decline of the defense, NE doesn’t look like a contender unless Brady demonstrates that he’s ahead of the usual recovery curve.
NO looks like a fantasy team. Brees on pace for 72 TD passes, including 2 against mighty PHI. Run defense looks a bit questionable (despite 2.9 avg), but they're hard to throw against, and teams will need to throw to keep up. (Think IND from their Superbowl year.)
NYJ is very much on the rise, rookie QB notwithstanding. Their defense has not given up a TD in 2 games (HOU, NE), and their running game is getting it done. The AFC East is not what it used to be, and this team looks primed to take the crown.
OAK was in it with SD, but struggled to beat KC; they look strong at times, but young and mistake prone. Yards per pass weak, against not-great pass defenses. Yardage defense average, but scoring defense in top-10. They seem to play to level of their opponents, with mixed results.
PHI has a good defense; last week was more NO greatness than PHI weakness. But until McNabb is back, the offense will not be the same, and Vick is not the solution. Honestly speaking, Jeff Garcia should be playing, not Kolb. They are still strong, and with McNabb, are legitimate contenders.
PIT’s running game averaging only 3.1/carry, and their defense (while FIERCE) is not the same without Polamalu. As always, they will not be blown out, and will tend to win close games, but they’re one more big injury from the middle of the pack.
SD is getting beat, despite spectacular performance from skill positions, notably Rivers. Given that this is several seasons in a row they’ve had slow starts, I think the problem is lack of conditioning at the strength positions. Norv Turner is not a guy who makes sure his linemen put in the weight-room time. Theorectically, they could play their way into game shape, but have lost NT Williams, and C Hardwick is out as well. The talent is still there, but they are no longer giants.
SEA is dealing with Hasselbeck hurt again. SF ran all over them, and even StL managed over 4 yards/carry. Pass defense untested thus far (StL, SF). Gonna be a long season.
SF is on the rise, and beat the fuck out of SEA (injuries to QB Hasselbeck, LT Locklear, MLB Tatupu, CB Wilson). Getting good play on both lines, and finally getting some pressure on QBs (without sacrificing run defense). They're not going to blow anyone out with their QB situation, but they look like a team nobody wants to play against.
STL is getting nothing from their passing game, Bulger or no. Lack of production elsewhere means this could be a long season, but can look forward to games against SEA.
TB is having problems with run defense (over 6 ypp against BUF), and is giving up over 5 ypp on both run and pass. Lost footraces to DAL and BUF, by over 12 points per game. Defense clearly not holding up their end; far less talent than glory days. The offense has not grown to make up the difference.
TEN is playing amazing run defense (1.9/attempt, less than 50/game). But they got shredded by lowly HOU’s pass game, largely from inability to stay on Andre Johnson. Looked like a lazy secondary; maybe a 1-week aberration. TEN’s Johnson doing great on the ground. Their defensive secondary problems might make a lot of games into footraces, which even their running game might not be able to keep up with.
WAS is getting okay (unspectacular) numbers on offense, and is not bad defensively. They’re just not finding the end zone. They will be tough to play against, and will squeak out wins, but will be whipped by top teams (NO, BAL, NYJ, etc.).
All that having been said, here are my picks for Wk 3:
NYJ (-2.5) vs. TEN
NYJ will not be able to run against TEN; nobody else has. But NYJ has not given up a touchdown TO ANYONE this season. Even placing things on Sanchez’s shoulders… I think he’s up to it.
JAX (+4) at HOU
Close call. HOU is coming on, and Andre Johnson will probably get loose against a not-great JAX pass defense. On the other hand, JAX is going to do dirty things to HOU’s league-worst run defense. Question is: is controlling the clock in the run game going to keep them within a field goal? I think it will.
PHI (-9.5) vs. KC
PHI is not going to be the same on offense until McNabb comes back, and Vick being available is a lot more likely to cause strife than it is to boost production. Still, even if all the QB does is hand the ball to Westbrook, they should cover at home against KC.
BAL (-13.5) vs. CLE
This is a big line. But BAL is really not shy about whipping on much weaker teams, which is exactly what CLE is.
NYG (-7) at TB
The Giants are really not getting the sort of controlling defense they should, but have not had any walkover opponents thus far. TB has not been as bad as their record, but they got whipped by DAL, who got beat by NYG last Sunday night.
DET (+6.5) vs. WAS
WAS managed only nine points in STL in Wk 2, and has only scored 2 touchdowns total in two games (with one coming in garbage time against NYG). How can they win by a TD when they can't really score a TD? DET is not good, but has played contenders (NO, MIN). I don't see WAS covering, and I think DET can win this outright, if they get the turnovers under control.
GB (-6.5) at StL
Rams are doing nothing on offense, even when the defense holds up its end. GB is really not built to blow teams out, but definitely seems a touchdown better, on average.
MIN (-7) vs. SF
SF has a great defense, and absolutely shut down Adrian Petersen last time they played (seriously; they were amazing, check it out). But MIN still won the game. By a lot. And that was with Tavaris Jackson as QB.
ATL (+4) at NE
ATL is on the rise, while NE is not doing so well. ATL is not as good as NYJ, but is still better than NE, even in NE (at least in September). NE loses or fails to cover.
CHI (-1.5) at SEA
SEA couldn’t stay this close to SF and a good running game. Hasselbeck healthy or not, they won’t stay this close to CHI and a good running game AND a good passing game. If Cutler does his job, this game is not close.
NO (-5.5) at BUF
Until further notice, I take NO to cover any possible spread, and this line makes me wonder if the oddsmakers know something I don’t. Way I see it, BUF (no huddle, soft pass defense) is not even gonna be much of a speed-bump in the face of NO’s current mojo. How are they supposed to stay within 6 against a NO team that lit up the PHI defense for 48 points?
MIA (+6.5) at SD
SD is weak. Talented, but weak, and managed to lose to BAL even with a 400-yard performance from Rivers. Add in SD injury problems, and I think MIA covers, or wins outright.
PIT (-4.5) at CIN
These Rust-Belt battles can be fun to watch. But I don’t think this one will be. PIT has been a bit soft in pass defense, but I think their zone-blitz will get to Palmer, who is solid, but past his prime. He misses TJ a lot more than he’ll admit.
DEN (+2) at OAK
How exactly was this line reached? OAK does bring it against DEN, but still. At least DEN can out-defense weak teams. Unless Jackson cuts the bone-head throws at least in half, DEN wins.
ARI (pk) vs. IND
See IND notes, above. ARI is middling pass defense, but second in league in sacks. Might be enough, especially at home.
CAR (+9.5) at DAL
CAR was very weak in Week 1, but was within 8 of ATL last week, and was threatening until a Delhomme INT in the end-zone iced the game. They don't have the history or fan-base, but I think ATL is better than DAL right now. This is a big line, and I think it’s driven by the Cowboys’ fans more than by the Cowboys’ abilities.
ARI has played amazing run defense, against running teams (SF, JAX). This team will rise or fall based on the offensive line’s protection of Warner. IND will be a test, with Freeney and Mathis on the pass-rush.
ATL looks strong, but hasn't played any of the big boys. Getting good work from Ryan and Gonzales, and Turner will get his every week. Pass defense okay, but run defense is a problem. They should win the games they should win, but still need to play their way into elite status.
BAL is strong running the ball (5 yards avg for Rice), is getting solid play from Flacco, and had a big win in SD after a walkover against KC. Great run defense, as always. They’ve shown they can win a footrace in SD; 2nd best scoring O in league (to NO). This team will be dangerous, and looks to have all the pieces.
BUF is gonna have protection problems with their offensive line injuries. Good run defense, but yielding 300 yards a game passing. Good running, and Edwards is getting job done; they’re putting up points. Playing footrace games, and not much clock control with no-huddle offense.
CAR is placing a lot of blame at Delhomme's feet, and he has given the ball away a lot. But the defense has not been able to cover for mistakes, and is yielding over 160 yards a game on the ground. When you give up over 30 points/game, there are problems other than QB play.
CHI is playing great run defense against running teams, but having problems defending the pass (against GB, PIT). Cutler hit or miss, but got PIT sans Polamalu. Lots of good stuff, but nothing spectacular. Expect close games, with wins depending on Cutler.
CIN was victim of a fluke vs. DEN, and strong in a win in GB; weak running, but okay passing that game. Pass defense a problem, middle of pack in scoring and scoring defense, but haven’t faced any jugernaughts. Penalty problems. Wins seem to depend on offensive chemistry, which might be coming together.
CLE not doing much on either side of ball in 2 double-digit losses (MIN, DEN).
DAL looks hugely overrated at this point, and any turnaround starts with Tony Romo. He's playing like a guy who spends too much time banging super-models, and not enough time studying film. Running is good, and they're scoring, but the Defense is not as good as the last few seasons, and hasn't been able to cover for Romo's mistakes.
DEN looked hopeless one week, strong the next. Orton not a problem. Best defense in league (after playing CIN, CLE). Strong against CLE, but needed a fluke to win in CIN. Clearly looking for new identity, and not a contender until they find one.
DET started the season against two legitimate Superbowl contenders. But biggest problem looks like turnovers (3 per game against NO and MIN). We’ll know more about them after facing a middling WAS team in Wk 3.
GB is having big problems in close games. Not generating a lot of yards, or yards per play, even against CIN. Okay run and pass defense, but pretty boring football, and they're allowing weaker teams to linger. So far, they're kidding themselves about contending with MIN in that division.
HOU is very weak on 3rd down on both sides of the ball. Worst run defense in league, edging CLE. They’ve played against strong defenses, but run game going nowhere. Scoring offense so far depends on Andre Johnson; impotent against NYJ, dazzling against TEN, and possible suspended in Wk 3 following a brawl on the sidelines in Wk 2. That would be bad for HOU.
IND is on the decline, with brainpower (coaching) losses, and with injuries on both sides of the ball (Sanders, Gonzales). Their 1st down pass to rush ratio was 4:1 in week one. JAX has a good rush defense, but with Manning slinging, Addai needs more than a 2.5 average rush. It is early, but don’t know if they’re going to be blowing anyone out, especially when MIA (despite losing) controlled the ball for over 45 mins of game time. Waiting to see them play a team with good pass defense.
JAX is getting almost 5 yards a carry from Jones-Drew, even with a game against ARI (who's run defense has been excellent). They’ve played solid offensive teams (IND, ARI), and their passing game/scoring defense have not been up to the task. Lit up by ARI passing game.
KC hung 24 on BAL in a loss, but scoring was in garbage time, and only got them within 14. Don’t expect a lot. Cassell & running both okay. Run defense good against weak teams, but not ready for big time. The talent is just simply not there.
NE is in decline (after a big loss to NYJ), pending a resurgence by Tom Brady. He has not been himself for 2 weeks, and generally speaking, that kind of injury takes a full season to recover from. Just ask Carson Palmer. In any rate, between this injury and decline of the defense, NE doesn’t look like a contender unless Brady demonstrates that he’s ahead of the usual recovery curve.
NO looks like a fantasy team. Brees on pace for 72 TD passes, including 2 against mighty PHI. Run defense looks a bit questionable (despite 2.9 avg), but they're hard to throw against, and teams will need to throw to keep up. (Think IND from their Superbowl year.)
NYJ is very much on the rise, rookie QB notwithstanding. Their defense has not given up a TD in 2 games (HOU, NE), and their running game is getting it done. The AFC East is not what it used to be, and this team looks primed to take the crown.
OAK was in it with SD, but struggled to beat KC; they look strong at times, but young and mistake prone. Yards per pass weak, against not-great pass defenses. Yardage defense average, but scoring defense in top-10. They seem to play to level of their opponents, with mixed results.
PHI has a good defense; last week was more NO greatness than PHI weakness. But until McNabb is back, the offense will not be the same, and Vick is not the solution. Honestly speaking, Jeff Garcia should be playing, not Kolb. They are still strong, and with McNabb, are legitimate contenders.
PIT’s running game averaging only 3.1/carry, and their defense (while FIERCE) is not the same without Polamalu. As always, they will not be blown out, and will tend to win close games, but they’re one more big injury from the middle of the pack.
SD is getting beat, despite spectacular performance from skill positions, notably Rivers. Given that this is several seasons in a row they’ve had slow starts, I think the problem is lack of conditioning at the strength positions. Norv Turner is not a guy who makes sure his linemen put in the weight-room time. Theorectically, they could play their way into game shape, but have lost NT Williams, and C Hardwick is out as well. The talent is still there, but they are no longer giants.
SEA is dealing with Hasselbeck hurt again. SF ran all over them, and even StL managed over 4 yards/carry. Pass defense untested thus far (StL, SF). Gonna be a long season.
SF is on the rise, and beat the fuck out of SEA (injuries to QB Hasselbeck, LT Locklear, MLB Tatupu, CB Wilson). Getting good play on both lines, and finally getting some pressure on QBs (without sacrificing run defense). They're not going to blow anyone out with their QB situation, but they look like a team nobody wants to play against.
STL is getting nothing from their passing game, Bulger or no. Lack of production elsewhere means this could be a long season, but can look forward to games against SEA.
TB is having problems with run defense (over 6 ypp against BUF), and is giving up over 5 ypp on both run and pass. Lost footraces to DAL and BUF, by over 12 points per game. Defense clearly not holding up their end; far less talent than glory days. The offense has not grown to make up the difference.
TEN is playing amazing run defense (1.9/attempt, less than 50/game). But they got shredded by lowly HOU’s pass game, largely from inability to stay on Andre Johnson. Looked like a lazy secondary; maybe a 1-week aberration. TEN’s Johnson doing great on the ground. Their defensive secondary problems might make a lot of games into footraces, which even their running game might not be able to keep up with.
WAS is getting okay (unspectacular) numbers on offense, and is not bad defensively. They’re just not finding the end zone. They will be tough to play against, and will squeak out wins, but will be whipped by top teams (NO, BAL, NYJ, etc.).
All that having been said, here are my picks for Wk 3:
NYJ (-2.5) vs. TEN
NYJ will not be able to run against TEN; nobody else has. But NYJ has not given up a touchdown TO ANYONE this season. Even placing things on Sanchez’s shoulders… I think he’s up to it.
JAX (+4) at HOU
Close call. HOU is coming on, and Andre Johnson will probably get loose against a not-great JAX pass defense. On the other hand, JAX is going to do dirty things to HOU’s league-worst run defense. Question is: is controlling the clock in the run game going to keep them within a field goal? I think it will.
PHI (-9.5) vs. KC
PHI is not going to be the same on offense until McNabb comes back, and Vick being available is a lot more likely to cause strife than it is to boost production. Still, even if all the QB does is hand the ball to Westbrook, they should cover at home against KC.
BAL (-13.5) vs. CLE
This is a big line. But BAL is really not shy about whipping on much weaker teams, which is exactly what CLE is.
NYG (-7) at TB
The Giants are really not getting the sort of controlling defense they should, but have not had any walkover opponents thus far. TB has not been as bad as their record, but they got whipped by DAL, who got beat by NYG last Sunday night.
DET (+6.5) vs. WAS
WAS managed only nine points in STL in Wk 2, and has only scored 2 touchdowns total in two games (with one coming in garbage time against NYG). How can they win by a TD when they can't really score a TD? DET is not good, but has played contenders (NO, MIN). I don't see WAS covering, and I think DET can win this outright, if they get the turnovers under control.
GB (-6.5) at StL
Rams are doing nothing on offense, even when the defense holds up its end. GB is really not built to blow teams out, but definitely seems a touchdown better, on average.
MIN (-7) vs. SF
SF has a great defense, and absolutely shut down Adrian Petersen last time they played (seriously; they were amazing, check it out). But MIN still won the game. By a lot. And that was with Tavaris Jackson as QB.
ATL (+4) at NE
ATL is on the rise, while NE is not doing so well. ATL is not as good as NYJ, but is still better than NE, even in NE (at least in September). NE loses or fails to cover.
CHI (-1.5) at SEA
SEA couldn’t stay this close to SF and a good running game. Hasselbeck healthy or not, they won’t stay this close to CHI and a good running game AND a good passing game. If Cutler does his job, this game is not close.
NO (-5.5) at BUF
Until further notice, I take NO to cover any possible spread, and this line makes me wonder if the oddsmakers know something I don’t. Way I see it, BUF (no huddle, soft pass defense) is not even gonna be much of a speed-bump in the face of NO’s current mojo. How are they supposed to stay within 6 against a NO team that lit up the PHI defense for 48 points?
MIA (+6.5) at SD
SD is weak. Talented, but weak, and managed to lose to BAL even with a 400-yard performance from Rivers. Add in SD injury problems, and I think MIA covers, or wins outright.
PIT (-4.5) at CIN
These Rust-Belt battles can be fun to watch. But I don’t think this one will be. PIT has been a bit soft in pass defense, but I think their zone-blitz will get to Palmer, who is solid, but past his prime. He misses TJ a lot more than he’ll admit.
DEN (+2) at OAK
How exactly was this line reached? OAK does bring it against DEN, but still. At least DEN can out-defense weak teams. Unless Jackson cuts the bone-head throws at least in half, DEN wins.
ARI (pk) vs. IND
See IND notes, above. ARI is middling pass defense, but second in league in sacks. Might be enough, especially at home.
CAR (+9.5) at DAL
CAR was very weak in Week 1, but was within 8 of ATL last week, and was threatening until a Delhomme INT in the end-zone iced the game. They don't have the history or fan-base, but I think ATL is better than DAL right now. This is a big line, and I think it’s driven by the Cowboys’ fans more than by the Cowboys’ abilities.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Presidential Conduct.... and football
I really don't see what all the fervor is about Barack Obama calling Kanye West a jackass. Honestly, it's one of the only thing he's done since being elected that 1) the average American can empathize and agree with and 2) is not going to result in serious economic problems for this country.
My personal position has for years been that when someone is acting like a jackass, members of the audience are not just allowed to, but are sometimes obliged to point at that the person is, indeed, acting like a jackass. It's not a party foul to call a duck a duck. Seems pretty clear that West had no regard for any sort of tact, propriety, or even politeness, and probably acted primarily in an efforts to get into Beyonce's pants. To a degree, I can respect that. But how exactly is this undeserved criticism? Any guy who would do that probably can't hear any criticism over the sound of his own awesomeness, but maybe a little rebuke from the President of the United States might get through, especially since West and the Prez are from the same town. Fingers crossed. Maybe he'll do us all a favor and retire.
I think it's unconscionalbe that Obama does things like bowing to foreign potentates, and any readers of this blog know my opinion on his qualifications (and/or intelligence) for running a country. But I definitely think he might have a future in social commentary and music-industry gossip. I could totally see him as a judge on American Idol. That seriously could be his true calling.
In any rate, we're headed into week two, with HT standing at 12-4 against the spread for the season. Am sure that will even out (even professional betters consider 60% picks tantamount to the holy grail), but feeling good, and gonna run with it. So.
OAK (+3) at KC
KC has always been tough at home, and they did manage to score last week against Baltimore. But OAK was right there against SD, and will be playing angry.
TEN (-6.5) vs. HOU
TEN should keep Slayton contained in the backfield; they certainly had no problems keeping PIT's running game bottled up. Andre Johnson might be a problem, but he hasn't really gotten the season started yet.
NYJ (+3.5) vs. NE
Jets are on the rise, while NE had big problems at home on a monday night against BUF. Brady should get the win, but I don't think it will be by more than a field-goal.
GB (-9) vs. CIN
GB does a lot of things well. CIN doesn't do much of anything well. This is a big line, but it's a big line for a reason.
MIN (-9.5) at DET
MIN does a lot of things well. DET doesn't do much of anything well. This is a big line, but it's a big line for a reason.
NO (+1.5) at PHI
Clash of the offensive titans here; I'd be more likely to take the over (46.5) than a spread bet, but whatever. With McNabb hurting, PHI will necessarily slow down. NO will be firing on all cylinders.
ATL (-6) vs. CAR
CAR will be better than they were last week, and are NOT going to repeat the 7 turnovers they had last week in PHI. ATL stomped on MIA, but received 4 giveaways. Think ATL is gonna cover, but not by much.
WAS (-9.5) vs. StL
Stl was shutout by SEA. Washington's defense is better than Seattle's.
ARI (+3) at JAX
ARI should bounce back. Their run defense was phenomenal last week, and JAX relies on their rushing game.
SF (-1.5) vs. SEA
This could go either way, but I'll give the nod to the home team with the strong defense.
BUF (-5) vs. TB
Tony Romo averaged 12.7 yards per ATTEMPT last week against TB. If TO and Lee Evans stop dropping the football, I don't think this one will be close.
DEN (3-20) vs. CLE
This shit is gonna be an ugly game. But I like Orton at home more than CLE on the road.
SD (-3) vs. BAL
Fricking Brody Croyle managed a 112 passer rating IN BALTIMORE last week. If Rivers gets anywhere near that, SD will cover, no matter how bad they looked in OAK.
PIT (-3) at CHI
PIT is better than the GB team that whipped on CHI last week. Until Cutler has a legitimate deep threat, CHI is not going to run away from teams, and if PIT is allowed to linger, they'll get the lead and build on it.
NYG (+3) at DAL
NYG's line play is in mid-season form. DAL has done nothing but whip on TB, and not sure their focus will be where it needs to be. NYG covers or wins outright.
IND (3-20) at MIA
Still think IND is on the decline, but they beat a better team than MIA last weekend, and Manning is still Manning.
My personal position has for years been that when someone is acting like a jackass, members of the audience are not just allowed to, but are sometimes obliged to point at that the person is, indeed, acting like a jackass. It's not a party foul to call a duck a duck. Seems pretty clear that West had no regard for any sort of tact, propriety, or even politeness, and probably acted primarily in an efforts to get into Beyonce's pants. To a degree, I can respect that. But how exactly is this undeserved criticism? Any guy who would do that probably can't hear any criticism over the sound of his own awesomeness, but maybe a little rebuke from the President of the United States might get through, especially since West and the Prez are from the same town. Fingers crossed. Maybe he'll do us all a favor and retire.
I think it's unconscionalbe that Obama does things like bowing to foreign potentates, and any readers of this blog know my opinion on his qualifications (and/or intelligence) for running a country. But I definitely think he might have a future in social commentary and music-industry gossip. I could totally see him as a judge on American Idol. That seriously could be his true calling.
In any rate, we're headed into week two, with HT standing at 12-4 against the spread for the season. Am sure that will even out (even professional betters consider 60% picks tantamount to the holy grail), but feeling good, and gonna run with it. So.
OAK (+3) at KC
KC has always been tough at home, and they did manage to score last week against Baltimore. But OAK was right there against SD, and will be playing angry.
TEN (-6.5) vs. HOU
TEN should keep Slayton contained in the backfield; they certainly had no problems keeping PIT's running game bottled up. Andre Johnson might be a problem, but he hasn't really gotten the season started yet.
NYJ (+3.5) vs. NE
Jets are on the rise, while NE had big problems at home on a monday night against BUF. Brady should get the win, but I don't think it will be by more than a field-goal.
GB (-9) vs. CIN
GB does a lot of things well. CIN doesn't do much of anything well. This is a big line, but it's a big line for a reason.
MIN (-9.5) at DET
MIN does a lot of things well. DET doesn't do much of anything well. This is a big line, but it's a big line for a reason.
NO (+1.5) at PHI
Clash of the offensive titans here; I'd be more likely to take the over (46.5) than a spread bet, but whatever. With McNabb hurting, PHI will necessarily slow down. NO will be firing on all cylinders.
ATL (-6) vs. CAR
CAR will be better than they were last week, and are NOT going to repeat the 7 turnovers they had last week in PHI. ATL stomped on MIA, but received 4 giveaways. Think ATL is gonna cover, but not by much.
WAS (-9.5) vs. StL
Stl was shutout by SEA. Washington's defense is better than Seattle's.
ARI (+3) at JAX
ARI should bounce back. Their run defense was phenomenal last week, and JAX relies on their rushing game.
SF (-1.5) vs. SEA
This could go either way, but I'll give the nod to the home team with the strong defense.
BUF (-5) vs. TB
Tony Romo averaged 12.7 yards per ATTEMPT last week against TB. If TO and Lee Evans stop dropping the football, I don't think this one will be close.
DEN (3-20) vs. CLE
This shit is gonna be an ugly game. But I like Orton at home more than CLE on the road.
SD (-3) vs. BAL
Fricking Brody Croyle managed a 112 passer rating IN BALTIMORE last week. If Rivers gets anywhere near that, SD will cover, no matter how bad they looked in OAK.
PIT (-3) at CHI
PIT is better than the GB team that whipped on CHI last week. Until Cutler has a legitimate deep threat, CHI is not going to run away from teams, and if PIT is allowed to linger, they'll get the lead and build on it.
NYG (+3) at DAL
NYG's line play is in mid-season form. DAL has done nothing but whip on TB, and not sure their focus will be where it needs to be. NYG covers or wins outright.
IND (3-20) at MIA
Still think IND is on the decline, but they beat a better team than MIA last weekend, and Manning is still Manning.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Maybe I Should Quit My Day Job...
With Monday's two games still pending(BUF at NE, SD at OAK), it has been a banner week for HT's NFL picks. To the point where I might reconsider my decision to not bet football this season.
With the two Monday games to go, HT's picks against the spread went a whopping 12-2. I checked it twice.
Observations going forward: SF's defense is for real; win or lose, they are going to be in a lot of close games this season. The Giants continue to be great on both lines, and are going to win games. But absent a WR stepping up, they're probably not going to be blowing anyone out. Take the under. MIN's rushing offense is scary. NO's passing offense is even scarier; Brees averaged over 10 yards per pass ATTEMPT. Take the over on those two. CAR could be done already unless they have a Brady-like backup, and IND seems on the decline.
God, I love football season.
With the two Monday games to go, HT's picks against the spread went a whopping 12-2. I checked it twice.
Observations going forward: SF's defense is for real; win or lose, they are going to be in a lot of close games this season. The Giants continue to be great on both lines, and are going to win games. But absent a WR stepping up, they're probably not going to be blowing anyone out. Take the under. MIN's rushing offense is scary. NO's passing offense is even scarier; Brees averaged over 10 yards per pass ATTEMPT. Take the over on those two. CAR could be done already unless they have a Brady-like backup, and IND seems on the decline.
God, I love football season.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Week One
Am not going to be betting this year, since this NFL season shows overwhelming signs of being a crazy, loopy, fucked-up season from hell. But just for kicks, here are my picks.
PIT (-6.5) over TEN
TEN is gonna be good, but PIT is always good, and is playing a season opener at home on a Thursday night. Think they'll bring more than TEN can handle.
ATL (-4) over MIA
Still waiting to see anything notable from MIA other than gimmick offense. ATL's offense is more than gimmick, and now has a Tony Gonzales.
BAL (-13) over KC
This is a HUGE spread (I use the numbers from the Hilton sportsbook), but KC doesn't have much of anything (even their new QB might not play), and BAL has no real shortage except WR depth.
PHI (-2.5) at CAR
PHI is gonna be strong, so long as Westbrook is healthy, and Vick is not a distraction. Westbrook is healthy, and Vick is inelligible this week.
CIN (-4.5) over DEN
The only NFL team that's been a bigger train-wreck than CIN over the last 4 seasons has been DEN over this last offseason (Oakland no longer counts as an NFL team). DEN will be able to run the ball. But CIN will be able to throw the ball. That'll be the difference.
MIN (-4) at CLE
MIN was good, and got better in the off-season. CLE was not so good, and didn't do much over the off-season.
NYJ (+4.5) at HOU
Everyone is high on the Texans. But they've actually accomplished fuck-all. NYJ is starting a rookie QB, but can run and play defense. Unless Andre Johnson breaks out, NYJ wins or covers.
JAX (+7) at IND
Wonder about IND's defense, and how they'll do sans Tony Dungy. Manning should win it for them, but I think JAX will cover.
NO (-13) over DET
HUGE line. But NO looks like a fantasy team, and their D has gotten better. DET started heading in the right direction as soon as Millen was canned, but they've turned over their roster, their best QB is a rookie, and they don't have much identity as a team.
DAL (-6) at TB
TB fired their offensive co-ordinator about a week ago. Don't think they're going to manage much. DAL will respond to Romo & Phillips being called out by Emmett Smith.
SF (+6.5) at ARI
SF has QB issues, but is on the rise, and has nasty defense. ARI lost the superbowl last time they played, and is treading water at best. Don't think they'll cover.
WAS (+6.5) at NYG
The Giants are tough where it matters (along both lines), and will be able to run. But who is Eli going to throw the ball to?
SEA (-8.5) over StL
Bulger is healthy, but how long will he stay that way playing behind that offensive line? The line is high enough to scare me a little, but SEA is clearly the better team right now, and playing a season opener at home, with a QB and an RB who both have something to prove.
GB (-3) over CHI
As with NYG, CHI has a lot of parts that work, but until a big-play receiver emerges, it's just dink-and-dunk, no matter how strong Cutler's arm is.
NE (-11) over BUF
BUF has not been great, and while adding TO makes them more talented, it doesn't necessarily make them better. The Pats are still the Pats, they're opening the season at home on a Monday night, and Tom Brady is healthy.
SD (-9.5) over OAK
LT has made a career of torching the Raiders, and is healthy. Gates and Rivers are healthy too. And this year, OAK would have problems facing SD's Torrey Pines High School, much less SD's Chargers. By cutting Jeff Garcia, Al Davis has made it 'Jamarcus Russel breakout season or bust.' Not many of Al's gambles have paid off lately.
PIT (-6.5) over TEN
TEN is gonna be good, but PIT is always good, and is playing a season opener at home on a Thursday night. Think they'll bring more than TEN can handle.
ATL (-4) over MIA
Still waiting to see anything notable from MIA other than gimmick offense. ATL's offense is more than gimmick, and now has a Tony Gonzales.
BAL (-13) over KC
This is a HUGE spread (I use the numbers from the Hilton sportsbook), but KC doesn't have much of anything (even their new QB might not play), and BAL has no real shortage except WR depth.
PHI (-2.5) at CAR
PHI is gonna be strong, so long as Westbrook is healthy, and Vick is not a distraction. Westbrook is healthy, and Vick is inelligible this week.
CIN (-4.5) over DEN
The only NFL team that's been a bigger train-wreck than CIN over the last 4 seasons has been DEN over this last offseason (Oakland no longer counts as an NFL team). DEN will be able to run the ball. But CIN will be able to throw the ball. That'll be the difference.
MIN (-4) at CLE
MIN was good, and got better in the off-season. CLE was not so good, and didn't do much over the off-season.
NYJ (+4.5) at HOU
Everyone is high on the Texans. But they've actually accomplished fuck-all. NYJ is starting a rookie QB, but can run and play defense. Unless Andre Johnson breaks out, NYJ wins or covers.
JAX (+7) at IND
Wonder about IND's defense, and how they'll do sans Tony Dungy. Manning should win it for them, but I think JAX will cover.
NO (-13) over DET
HUGE line. But NO looks like a fantasy team, and their D has gotten better. DET started heading in the right direction as soon as Millen was canned, but they've turned over their roster, their best QB is a rookie, and they don't have much identity as a team.
DAL (-6) at TB
TB fired their offensive co-ordinator about a week ago. Don't think they're going to manage much. DAL will respond to Romo & Phillips being called out by Emmett Smith.
SF (+6.5) at ARI
SF has QB issues, but is on the rise, and has nasty defense. ARI lost the superbowl last time they played, and is treading water at best. Don't think they'll cover.
WAS (+6.5) at NYG
The Giants are tough where it matters (along both lines), and will be able to run. But who is Eli going to throw the ball to?
SEA (-8.5) over StL
Bulger is healthy, but how long will he stay that way playing behind that offensive line? The line is high enough to scare me a little, but SEA is clearly the better team right now, and playing a season opener at home, with a QB and an RB who both have something to prove.
GB (-3) over CHI
As with NYG, CHI has a lot of parts that work, but until a big-play receiver emerges, it's just dink-and-dunk, no matter how strong Cutler's arm is.
NE (-11) over BUF
BUF has not been great, and while adding TO makes them more talented, it doesn't necessarily make them better. The Pats are still the Pats, they're opening the season at home on a Monday night, and Tom Brady is healthy.
SD (-9.5) over OAK
LT has made a career of torching the Raiders, and is healthy. Gates and Rivers are healthy too. And this year, OAK would have problems facing SD's Torrey Pines High School, much less SD's Chargers. By cutting Jeff Garcia, Al Davis has made it 'Jamarcus Russel breakout season or bust.' Not many of Al's gambles have paid off lately.
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