So Long Osama

It's been quite a while since I've posted anything, and while quite a lot has happened in the meantime, I'm going to break my spell of silence not with personal anecdotes about relationships or human nature on display at Fenway Park. I'm still enjoying the former and contemplating context to describe that latter, so I will instead talk about something of temporal significance: the death of Osama Bin Laden. Let me warn you that this post is going to have some conspiracy theory overtones. Sorry about that, but it will almost certainly not be a conspiracy theory you've already heard. And as always, I admit that I might be wrong in suggesting such theories. My primary goal here in to inspire thought: Whether you believe me or not, THINK.

Now then. Osama.

The guy had been on the run for a decade since 9/11, and the biggest surprise to many people was that removing him of the mortal coil took as long as it did. Such surprise is warranted. I've posted in the distant past about America's ability to locate and keep track of things pretty much anywhere on the planet, so how is it that Osama was able to keep breathing for as long as he did? While the man didn't radiate gamma rays per se, you'd think there must have been something about him that we could use to find him.

Consider. America knew all about him, his beliefs, and his tendencies. We had our own contact with him, back when we were funding his efforts with the Mujahideen in Afghanistan in the early 80s. We were in possession of detailed information regarding his upbringing, education, personal and marital lives, political views, personal and professional associations, and even his physical quirks and mannerisms (he's left handed, for example). He was even nice enough to provide us with periodic updates on his thoughts, feelings, and appearance with his occasional videotaped diatribes. All in all, the guy lived a notable life for quite a while, cut quite a path, and left quite a trail.

For most of the populace, regardless of education levels, those sort of facts and details are little more than trivia. So the guy was a left-handed younger son of a Saudi price with a deep and abiding hatred of the US. We knew that. So what?

But bear in mind that the United States government maintains a dedicated staff of people who do nothing more than review those trivial details and build a composite of the person, from which real-world behavior can be extrapolated. FBI criminal profilers can assess facts and evidence, apply such facts and evidence to standardized (not to be confused as clinical - even the best in the business admit that criminal profiling is as much art as science) models of human thought and behavior, and extrapolate all sorts of details about an unknown criminal subject (an 'unsub'). To the point that they are able to reliably project things like the make, model, and color of the car that the unsub drives, as well as all sorts of other surprising (and surprisingly accurate) details. If you're interested in this subject, the FBI's criminal profiling guru (John Douglas) has written several books, any of which will provide you qulaity insight into the nature and study of human grotesquery. And those books (and the details therein) only address the relatively open-book projects and programs we see on weekly crime dramas. While our government is far from perfect, it's pretty good at getting smart people together and coming up with solutions to difficult problems, and is also pretty good at keeping those solutions under wraps for extended periods. (Google F-117.)

Don't doubt for a second that CIA analysts had an exceptionally detailed psych profile on friend Osama. ('CIA' is merely a convenient descriptor for whatever black department handles HUMINT these days; as a subject, human nature is not nearly so flashy as, e.g. jets and gadgets, so Langley - or wherever Uncle Sam delves the mysteries of the human mind - doesn't get nearly the press that Area 51 et al does.) Given detailed knowledge about Osama bin Laden's personal background, beliefs, tendencies, and proclivities, and given the availability of the best minds on the planet to review the data, don't you think we would have figured out some wheres and whens that he might be? Spot some exploitable trends or tendencies? Get a leg up on him? Even with the guy sleeping in a new bed every night? After all, what that means is more information coming in about beds he's slept in given various times, seasons, circumstances, and so forth, which is just more data for your profilers to consider. Add in human nature and the foibles of other people (collecting on rewards offered for information about Osama's whereabouts), and add in the technological abilities of the United States to monitor electronic and other communication, and it really is amazing that the guy stayed upright and at large for as long as he did.

I posit to you that, in more than a few instances over the last decade, the United States was fully aware of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts and was possessed of readily available means to shuffle him off, yet did not take those opportunities. As for the 'why,' I like to believe that it was not to preserve a threat and media vehicle which could be capitalized on for economic or political ends (although those might have been factors), but rather because it was of critical importance that Osama die the right sort of death.

Lesser terrorist leaders are routinely killed when air strikes or cruise missiles hit their cars, bunkers, homes, etc. The Administration (even dating back to Clinton) consider most terrorist eliminations as analogous to squishing distasteful insects: best done with minimal fuss. But for political and cultural reasons, I don't think that would do for Osama. Indeed, such efforts might have opened the door for more than just a martyr's death. Had bin Laden passed away quietly in the depths of a remote bunker - either of a natural death or of a fiery one - it would be far too easy for him to pass into legend. The man was already worshiped in that area of the world (for a variety of reasons), and a simple disappearance would allow him to become a modern-day folk tale. "Yes little Muslim children, the Americans are strong. But look at the great hero, Osama bin Laden. He is Out There Somewhere, kids, fighting The Good Fight, and sneering and laughing at their futile efforts to find him and stop him. Look at the great superpower, impotent against his faith, devotion, and cleverness. Now, let us talk about shedding the blood of the infidel, as commanded by the Prophet, and as demonstrated by Osama..."

Not so good.

Any sort of plausible deniability about his death would be capitalized on by a repressed culture so desperate for heroes that teenagers willingly blow themselves up to become one. Rest assured that somewhere there is a stack of video-tapes with pre-recorded messages and warnings from bin Laden, which might be periodically disclosed in "rebuttal" of reports of his death. We might see them yet.

Besides the risk of deniability, airstrikes are not especially impressive a way to kill a notable figure. They're very arms-length and impersonal, especially to a people (notably Afghans) for whom combat is a very hands-on experience, and where that experience includes torturing captives to death. Remember those CNN images of American soldiers being dragged through the streets of Mogudishu? (By the way, their names were Randall Shughart and Gary Gordon. Worth not forgetting.) That dragging through the streets was par for the course for that part of the world. When Saddam Hussein was finally captured, the general sentiment in the middle-east was that the proper course of action was to kill him and drag his body through the streets in similar fashion, so there would be no doubt as to his death. That's the type of culture being dealt with here. Death of an enemy is something to be flaunted and celebrated. So raise your hand if you think people dissatisfied with a dictator's hanging would have been impressed with a hero dying death by air-mail?

No. For that kind of man, the risk of him becoming a legend was too great. There could be no bolt from blue or dagger in the night. The only way to hammer home the significance of his death would be for Osama to literally be hunted down and shot like a dog. Muslim children might still hear Robin Hood tales about Osama bin Laden, and how he fought against the Great Satan. But unlike Robin Hood, who passed into legend with Maid Marian, Osama bin Laden was hunted down. In a place he thought secret, under protection of his own men, and almost certainly under the protection of the local, state, and national governments he was in. Nonetheless, the Americans came in night, through the airspace "controlled" by his allies, in noiseless helicopters. They kicked down his door, killed all his men, and shot him in the face. THAT is a message that will not be lost on the Arab world: Osama bin Laden was not killed by American technology, by treachery, or by a long-range impersonal air-strike. Rather, his enemies defeated all his precautions, and an AMERICAN SOLDIER came into his house and shot him down where he stood. Think about that for a few minutes, Muslim children.

While there was no body dragged through the streets to proclaim his death, and while there's been widespread questioning of the decision to dump his body at sea, the terrorist movement doesn't even have a grave-site to commemorate the death of its greatest modern leader. He was given rites so his soul might be with Allah, youngsters, but those rites were had because his enemies allowed them, and his final resting place was not one of his choosing.

With all he had done, it was inevitable that Osama bin Laden would be labeled a martyr. But the fact remains that in the end, he was tracked down and killed by men who came into his home in the night. He put that end off for a years (living on the run), but the end came, and it was not a hero's death.

By and large, the United States could not have scripted a better ending to minimize the risk of his canonization and glorification-in-death. Which makes me wonder if the reason it took so long for it to happen was because the script couldn't be enacted until recently. And it's not like he was having much success with his ongoing terrorist jihad while we were waiting for circumstances to be just right, in the meantime. So why not take the time to do the job right?