Ramblings on Politics, and Predictions on Media Events

In his presidential campaign, Barack Obama very much rode to victory on a tide of good press and optimistic endorsements, not just from notable political figures like Colin Powell, but from any number of journalists, columnists, and other public figures (hello, Oprah!). The funny part is that those people - lets be honest here - never endorsed the man's actual politics. How could they? Nobody even knew the man's politics. It was less than a five-year span over which Obama went from being a con law professor at University of Chicago to President of the United States; he HAD no real history in making or shaping policy.

He expressed various things over the course of his campaign, like the end of government subsidization of Big Business. The cutting back of involvement in over-seas conflicts. The idea of open government, free of back-room deals. And, of course, CHANGE. But for all that, it never really mattered what his political position was, because he was just so damn charismatic, people WANTED to believe what he said. People WANTED to believe that he was going to usher in a new era. People WANTED change. And they wanted it so bad, and thought Barack was just such a great guy, that nobody - mass media, this means you - ever got around to asking him the usual pointed questions politicians face about the whys and hows and whos-going-to-pay-the-bills. The mass media and pop culture anointed Obama the Golden Boy of a New Era, and to large degree, turned into his minions.

But then he got into office. He jumped right into government subsidization of Big Business, by essentially nationalizing two of the larges business entities on the planet. There was no substantial improvement in the military situations in either Iraq or Afghanistan. Back-room meetings (from which even opposing-party elect were barred) became par for the course. Not only was there no indicia of substantial change, but things appeared even worse than before. Changing locks in the Capital building, to keep Republicans out of meetings where national policy is being made? Staged "town hall meetings" packed with Obama ringers tossing him soft, slow, up the middle questions? Open spats with national media organizations? This did not seem normal like a dignified, above-board, respectable administration trying to make changes from within. More than anything else, it looked like all the stories about the worst points of the Chicago Machine projected onto the national scale, with much the same ill-conceived shady antics.

But the media persisted. Barack was their boy, and they had his back. They pitched some lines that even Chris Matthews had a hard time delivering with a straight face, said that things really weren't as bad as they seemed, and promised that change was coming. All of this hubbub is just Right-wing/Racist/Republican hate-mongering. Reports from the Southern Poverty Law Center supported this, and were cited to by many news agencies. But those damn reactionaries could not stand in the way of Change! Barack just needs some time to address the matter. After all, people couldn't expect results right away. But the situation is under control. The matter is being assessed, and will be handled. Don't call us, we'll call you.

And most of the media bought it, and tried to sell it to the American people.

More time when by. Wars did not end. The economy did not improve. And the President abandoned pretty much every issue except his dream of national healthcare. Good goal to have, and if he managed it, Barack could tell himself that he would live forever as a Man of Destiny. He had climbed the mountain that had beaten Bill Clinton, Ted Kennedy, and all the other predecessors. He would bring health care to all those inner-city people he worked with back when he was just getting his start in politics. All that was needed was for American to take on $10 trillion or so of healthcare tab. But he was going to have it, and the American people were going to have it. He was President! He had the Mandate of the People! Everyone who read the mass media knew what a great guy he was!

But time passed, and nobody could really explain how this transcendental health plan was going to work. Nobody could really explain how this transcendental plan was going to be paid for. Back-room deals (the kind Barack said would be a thing of the past) were cut with key senators, to get them to support the bill. All of the dirtiest, sleaziest, most corrupt parts of American (Chicago?) politics were front and center. And, for the first time in about 20 years, the American people started paying attention to government, instead of just listening to the media reports on the government. Polls were conducted, studies were commissioned, but in truth, nobody really knew where the People stood, even though the media generally continued to tell them how close we were to a halcyon moment when national healthcare became a reality, and how great it would be for America, whether America like it or not.

And in a sudden, unexpected twist, Ted Kennedy died. Initially, it looked like the Obama administration was drooling over it: he was a lifelong crusader for national healthcare, and even if he did have a few foibles in his youth involving dead secretaries, he WAS a Kennedy. Barack could trumpet the current health care bill as Ted's legacy, even though he wanted everyone to be sure to remember that HE got it done, after Ted couldn't. Media events and spin-doctors got on the job. The Democratic party was poised to ram through national health-care, whether the Republicans (and/or the electorate) wanted it or not. One more once-over from the House, reconciliation and ratification in the Senate, and it was a done-deal.

But there was a problem. Ted, now deceased, was part of the Democrats' 60-man super-majority in the Senate. The healthcare bill they were trying to pass was so amazingly left-wing that not a single member of the Republican party was going to support it. Hell, even some Democrats needed sweat-heart back-room deals to get them on board. Ted's vote had been counted on, and they needed it!

This problem was compounded by the fact that Massachusetts law required a special election to fill the seat. Rather than just appointing a guy they wanted, Barack and his camp would have to WIN that seat back again. But no worries. Massachusetts was so Blue it was black, and this seat had been held by a Kennedy for 50 years. It was theirs. They would get the vote. They, through Barack, had the Mandate of the People! The media suggested how cute it was that Brown was making a good showing in the race, but expressed (historically well-founded) opinions that a blue-to-the-bone Massachusetts election was a Done Deal.

Except it wasn't. Somewhere along the line, people had noticed that the only change the administration had brought was business as usual, except where such business was pushed aside to pursue was appeared an impossible dream: A plan to saddle the American people with a nation's healthcare costs (whether they liked it or not), and don't worry; we'll be able to afford it. Economic recovery will be the next item on our agenda. People seemed to stop buying it. They got over the charisma and charm, and realized that this was fucking stupid. No matter what spin the media put on it, Obama's vision was not Camelot, it was a castle in the sky.

And - in Massachusetts at least - they responded, and voted Republican. Political Armageddon: the Kennedy Seat turned Red. Shock in the media, and rightly so. I guarantee you, NOBODY saw this coming, even two weeks ago, and anyone who says otherwise is lying. People might've anticipated a close race, and were prepared to argue that - in Blue Massachusetts - even a close win boded poorly for the Obama agenda. But an outright Democratic loss? In MA? Inconceivable. Right-wing talking heads hailed the return of reason. Left-wing talking heads scrambled to find a way to fit this development into the liberal world-view media gestalt they had been pitching for years.

But it happened. Spin-doctoring aside, the voters voted how they did, and they didn't toe the line the media never doubted. Wonder of wonders, the people MADE the news, instead of just reading it. With the practical result that EVEN IN MASSACHUSETTS, the Administration's platform was declared too far to the left, and in need of reigning in.

But the funny part of all this is not the results (which warms my heart, since it suggests that the populace is once again taking an interest in their national situation), but the aftermath. Most notably, the Administration's response, which was to blame the loosing candidate (Democrat Martha Coakley) for having run "a poor campaign." Which she undeniably did. But isn't Bacack supposed to be the head man in the party? You know; in a Presidential kind of way? As badly as he needed that 60th vote in the Senate, might he not have taken a greater interest in this election?

Practically speaking, this could be the death of the Obama health-care plan. First, from a political perspective, he's lost his unbeatable super-majority in Congress. Should healthcare ever need further Senatorial approval, it will be filibustered into perpetuity, because - as Massachusetts demonstrated - politicians who support the bill will tend to find themselves unemployed. The winner in the MA race actively trumpeted himself as "The 41st vote" that would bring a halt to the Obama agenda. People seem to have bought it. Nobody cares more about job security than politicians, and even in MA, the voters appear to opposed to big spending more than they support straight-ticket loyalties. Besides, nobody likes to back a losing horse: Barack held the House, the Senate, and the Oval Office, and couldn't get it done.

And in the aftermath, Barack himself has killed the party unity he was relying on in pushing health-care through. By throwing Coakley under the bus for the loss, he has indicated to his party that he considers himself as having little or no loyalty to any of the congressmen who might tacitly support him. A far cry from his calls to rally together as a party and stand shoulder to shoulder against the opposition, while throwing to the wolves any erstwhile political ally who can't or won't toe the line.

What's going through the minds of Democrat congressmen today? Massachusetts has indicated that elections can be won on a platform limited to "I will oppose Barack Obama," and they know that their personal constituency is almost certainly more conservative than Massachusetts. The people seem to be expressing their displeasure with forcing healthcare through. The best reason to support the bill - presenting a unified party front to achieve a grand goal - seems dead, since the grand goal has been watered down (to put it politely) in committee, and since Barack himself has indicated that he'll consider a pariah anyone who falls away or can't keep up. Washington is very much a back-scratching kind of town, and throwing that away seems to be the only real change Obama has brought. Why exactly should these congressmen contemplate possible political suicide by continuing to support the party line?

Add it all up. Obama has preserved all the worst tendencies of his undeniably lack-luster predecessors. Overseas conflict, weak economy, massive spending, and shady back-room deals. The change he has brought is setting aside central issues to pursue his Man of Destiny dreams about national healthcare. The promises he made in his campaign were lies, he's had a year and gotten substantially nothing done, and even MASSACHUSETTS has aligned itself against his agenda.

The shine has distinctly worn off with the American people.

The thing to pay attention to now is the media. As outlined above, Barack's greatest strength has always been his charisma and presentability with the media (not to be confused with media-saavy; his management of the Coakley loss suggests that he has none of that). Watch how things change, since it's already started. In his first statement since the Brown victory, Obama has urged Congress not to jam through health-care, but to wait until Brown is seated. But the photo on Yahoo accompanying the article is not one of the usual "man of the people" snaps of Barack in mid-oration, or of him gazing into the distance in a visionary fashion. Rather, the photo shows him with a distinctly sour look on his face. The same AP article on MSNBC's web page shows the President angry and intense, which while probably the reality of his mindset, is hardly a positive image in the wake of recent events. In the aftermath of the MA race, even the Huffington Post has turned apologist, which is - frankly - remarkable.

The main goal of the media is to pander to the reader. Journalistic integrity is a contradiction in terms. The people who buy newspapers and read webpages seem to be souring on this whole Obama Brave New World thing. It will be fun to see what changes might be made in the coming weeks to sell newspapers. In the end, I suspect Obama will have lost mush of the mass media that has been his political lifeblood. I wonder how bad the bleeding will be, and if he has anything else to sustain him. Because I suspect not. He has always been a remarkably poor politician. With ever-decreasing returns on his defining charisma, grand hopes, and promises of change, is he a lame duck one year into office?