UPDATE: HT's Experiment In Applied Game Theory

In my last post, I listed the games that I bet based purely on memory, since I didn't have the betting stubs with me as I was blogging. Turns out my memory was wrong, probably due to the fact that I was pretty drunk when I made those bets at Red Rock Station at 1 am on Sunday morning. After reviewing the tickets, here are the underdogs that I actually bet last week:

CLE (hosting DAL, +6) (Didn't cover)
OAK (hosting DEN, +3) (Didn't cover)
KC (at NE, +16) (Covered)
CHI (at IND, +9.5) (Won outright)
CAR (at SD, +9.5) (Won outright)

I was wrong about having bet HOU at PIT, since that line (+6) was closer than the CHI and CAR games, which is the second criteria for picking games, after taking home underdogs against fan-favorite teams. Thus, I won three of my five tickets, putting me at +1 for the weekend (3 wins, 2 losses). For reference, I'll probably keep score based on the number of winning bets vs. losing bets, since the money won or lost is secondary to the statistical analysis of my applied game theories, which is how I'm spinning this season's football betting. Hey, we all do mental gymnastics to justify doing things that we know we probably shouldn't be doing.

In any rate, here are the wagers that I'm considering this weekend, in the likely order of betting, based on the reasoning of the last post, and with the odds currently listed at the Las Vegas Hilton Superbook:

StL, hosting NYG, +8.5
CLE, hosting PIT, +6
DET, hosting GB, +3
MIN, hosting IND, +1.5
DEN, hosting SD, +1.5

(Incidentally, the Giants at Rams line has already gone up to +8.5 from the +6 Monday morning opening line, and is already at +10 on some online books. That is a BIG shift, and it should continue to go up, as more middle-of-the road gamblers - who last week saw NYG bust ass and StL suck ass - will jump on the bandwagon with the rabid Giants fans.)

The rational part of my mind says that none of these teams are really that likely to cover the spread against the high-powered fan-favorties they're playing, but that's the common reasoning that I'm trying to take advantage of, and that I'm counting on to drive the published betting lines away from the actual mathematical margin of probable victory. Again, this season's betting is going to be done completely devoid of rational thought. I will simply bet the underdogs who are playing (ideally at home) against fan-favorite teams. This week, it's not easy: fan-favorites DAL and PHI are playing each other monday night (@DAL, -7.5), which means that their respective rabid fans should cancel each other out with bets, leaving the posted line pretty similar to the mathematical line, and rendering that a poor choice for this project. Likewise, the Pats are playing the Jets.

Bets will be placed early (EARLY) Sunday morning, to best take advantage of line movement. Let me hear your thoughts if you have any.